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How to Make Intellectual Guess in UPSC Prelims Exam?

Here, we are explaining step by step how to intellectually guess the correct answers of questions.Its an art which develops with time,practice and many veterans don’t tell you the recipe.It is one area where beginners lag behind,but no more.For sample,we have taken the questions from 2016,2015 and 2014 question papers to explain it.To decipher the pattern of intellectual guesses in 2017 prelims and 2018 prelims question paper you must be a paid subscriber.We will also tell why UPSC asks such questions and its relevance so that during reading newspapers you can focus on such sectors.

1st question-2016 prelims

Q- The FAO accords the status of ‘Globally Important Agricultural Heritage System (GIAHS)’ to traditional agricultural systems. What is the overall goal of this initiative?

1.To provide modern technology, training in modern farming methods      and financial support to local communities of identified   GIAHS so as to  greatly enhance their agricultural productivity

2.To identify and safeguard eco-friendly traditional farm practices and their associated landscapers, agricultural biodiversity and    knowledge systems of the local communities

3.To provide Geographical Indication status to all the varieties of agricultural produce in such identified GIAHS

Select the correct answer using the code given below.

(a) 1 and 3 only

(b) 2 only

(C) 2 and 3 only

(d) 1, 2 and 3

Solution: B

Explanation-

The name itself has all the answers in it-

‘Globally Important Agricultural Heritage System (GIAHS)’

Focus on the word “heritage” and you will see that statement 2 which mentions about traditional farm practices and knowledge system of local communities will be the right option.So now you are sure about statement 2.

Coming to First Statement

 If  modern technology and modern farming methods will be provided then how will the “Agricultural Heritage System” survive? Isnt it contradictory?In fact modern farming practices will erode the traditional culture of farming ,for example the use of chemical pesticides ,fertilisers eroded the practice of organic farming in many areas of the world.So its very obvious that 1st statement will be wrong.

Coming to 3rd statement-

Is it possible to grant Geographical Indication status to “all the varieties of agricultural produce “ in that area? The traditional farming practices must be applicable to one or two crops from that region.If that statement would be correct then GI status will have to be accored to even lemons and oranges produced in that area.Its a sweeping statement regarding GI status and there fore it has to be wrong even if you are not sure whether any particular crop is provide GI status or not.(Its not provided though in GIAHS).

So only statement 2 is correct here.

So,even if you haven’t heard the term before,you can answer it correctly by using your common sense on the spot.

2nd question- 2016 Prelims

Q-In the context of the developments in Bioinformatics, the term ‘transcriptome’, sometimes seen in the news, refers to

(a) a range of enzymes used in genome editing

(b) the full range of mRNA molecules expressed by an organism

(c) the description of the mechanism of gene expression

(d) a mechanism of genetic mutations taking place in cells

Answer- B

Explanation-

Its simple-Transcriptome word is made of transcript+genome,transcript is generally used for written or printed messages or material.

mRNA stands for messenger RNA.

So,one who knows the full form of mRNA can easily guess the correct answer.

Note-This question was directly picked from NCERT Biology Chapter on Biotechnology and Its applications.

3rd question- 2016 prelims

Q-With reference to ‘Initiative for Nutritional Security through Intensive Millets Promotion’, which of the following statements is/are correct?

1.This initiative aims to demonstrate the improved production and post-harvest technologies, and to demonstrate value addition   techniques, in an integrated manner, with cluster approach.

2.Poor, small, marginal and tribal farmers have larger stake in this scheme.

3.An important objective of the scheme is to encourage farmers of commercial crops to shift to millet cultivation by offering them free     kits of critical inputs of nutrients and micro-irrigation equipment.

Select the correct answer using the code given below.

(a) 1 only

(b) 2 and 3 only

(c) 1 and 2 only

(d) 1, 2 and 3

Answer – C

Explanation-

Here, 1  and   2 are obvious statements because all farmer centric schemes are focussed on small ,marginal and tribal farmers.

Now,coming to 3rd statement

Millets are generally produced by poor farmers.Poor farmers rarely produce commercial crops because of large amounts of inputs and large areas of cultivation required for commercial crops.This proves that third statement is wrong.Another reasoning is that commercial crops bring more profits to farmers who practice it,so there is no rationale in encouraging farmers to shift from commercial crops to millet cultivation,its common sense.

So,one can easily guess that only statements 1 and 2 are correct.

4th Question- 2016 prelims

With reference to an initiative called ‘The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity (TEEB)’, which of the following statements is/are correct?

1.It is an initiative hosted by UNEP, IMF and World Economic Forum.

2.It is a global initiative that focuses on drawing attention to the economic benefits of biodiversity.

3.It presents an approach that can help decision-makers recognize,   demonstrate and capture the value of ecosystems and   biodiversity.

Select the correct answer using the code given below.

(a) 1 and 2 only

(b) 3 only

(c) 2 and 3 only

(d) 1, 2 and 3

Solution: C

Explanation-

This is a simple question even if one you haven’t heard about TEEB  before.

Coming to first statement

 One can make out that first statement is wrong as soon as one notices IMF as an organisation behind the initiative.Anyone who has basic knowledge about functions of IMF can say that this statement is wrong.IMF doesn’t concern itself with environment related activities.World Bank does.Had there been World Bank instead of IMF then this question could have been a googly,but mention of IMF made it as simple as that.To check our article on Climate Related Funds you need to be a subscriber.Most of the climate related funds are managed by World Bank and GEF.

Now ,second statement is just a corollary of the name of the initiative,nothing to guess ,it has to be correct.

Compare Second and Third statements. Either both can be correct or both can be wrong,because second statement talks about drawing attention to economic benefits of biodiversity and third statement talks about demonstrating the value of biodiversity,both statements convey similar meaning.

So now we are sure that first statement is wrong,second and third statement ,either both will be wrong or both will be correct.

So We get the solution as 2 and 3 .

5th Question-2016 Prelims

 Q-Which of the following is/are the advantage /advantages of practising drip irrigation?

1.Reduction in weed

2.Reduction in soil salinity

3.Reduction in soil erosion

Select the correct answer using the code given below.

(a) 1 and 2 only

(b) 3 only

(c) 1 and 3 only

(d) None of the above is an advantage of practising drip irrigation

Solution: C

Explanation

This question became a simple one due to the options mentioned.Had there been an option- all(1,2 and 3),then this question would have been difficult to guess if one didn’t know the answer.

In drip irrigation less water is used and less water flows through the cultivated land so weed growth will  be reduced as less water will  be available for weeds and there wont be any soil erosion as water doesn’t flow here.Therefore one is sure about 1 and 3, and since there is no option which mentions all 3 statements,one can easily go with the answer as 1 and 3 only.

6th Question-2016 Prelims

Q-Consider the following pairs:

   Famous place          Region

1.Bodhgaya    —         Baghelkhand

2.Khajuraho   —     Bundelkhand

3.Shirdi     —            Vidarbha

4.Nasik (Nashik) —    Malwa

5.Tirupati     —          Rayalaseema

Which of the pairs given above are correctly matched?

(a) 1, 2 and 4

(b) 2, 3, 4 and 5

(c) 2 and 5 only

(d) 1, 3, 4 and 5

Solution: C

Explanation-

 Baghelkhand is in Central India, whereas Bodhgaya is in Bihar. So, if 1 is wrong, we have options (b) and (c) remaining.

Malwa doesn’t extend to Nasik and Shirdi is in Ahmadnagar (far from Vidarbha). So, 3 and 4 are wrong.

The only answer can be C.

7th Question-2016 Prelims

There has been a persistent deficit budget year after year. Which action/actions of the following can be taken by the Government to reduce the deficit?

1.Reducing revenue expenditure

2.Introducing new welfare schemes

3.Rationalizing subsidies

4.Reducing import duty

Select the correct answer using the code given below.

(a) 1 only

(b) 2 and 3 only

(c) 1 and 3 only

(d) 1, 2, 3 and 4

Solution: C

Explanation-

 Its an easy question,not eligible for “intellectual guess”,one can be easily sure about the answer.

 Statement 1: Unnecessary revenue expenditure bloats the fiscal deficit, and since it forms the majority of government spending, its reduction has a very large effect on the fiscal deficit.

Statement 2: It will further increase the fiscal deficit.

Statement 3: Subsidies are a major component of government spending, and its reduction will cut down fiscal deficit.

Statement 4: It reduces tax revenue and thus increases fiscal deficit.   

8th Question- 2016 Prelims

Q-Which one of the following books of ancient India has the love story of the son of the founder of Sunga dynasty?

(a) Swapnavasavadatta

(b) Malavikagnimitra

(c) Meghadoota

(d) Ratnavali

Solution- B

Explanation-

Its an interesting intellectual guess.Question is related to son of the founder of Sunga dynasty.Almost everyone knows that Pushyamitra Sunga was the founder of Sunga dynasty.

Coming to options,we can see Malavikagnimitra seems to be made up of two words-Malavika and Agnimitra.So one can easily related Pushyamitra with Agnimitra and get the answer.

9th Question-2016 Prelims

Q-What is/are the importance/importances of the ‘United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification’?

1.It aims to promote effective action through innovative national programmes and supportive inter-national partnerships.

2.It has a special/particular focus on South Asia and North Africa regions, and its Secretariat facilitates the allocation of major portion of  financial resources to these regions.

3.It is committed to bottom-up approach, encouraging the participation of local people in combating the desertification.

Select the correct answer using the code given below.

(a) 1 only

(b) 2 and 3 only

(c) 1 and 3 only

(d) 1, 2 and 3

Solution: C

Explanation-

First statement is a general kind of statement.Any initiative in the world wether related to combating desertification,climate change,fighting piracy etc requires innovative national programmes and inter-national partnerships. So it must be true.

Second statement– uses the phrase-“Secretariat facilitates” . No secretariat in the world will “facilitate” allocation of funds to particular regions .Secretariats are administrating bodies and not lobbying agencies.If more funds are to be allocated to a particular region then it has to be in rules or doctrine of the organisation,secretariat will never facilitate it,it may focus on it.So definitely second statement is wrong.

Third Statement– tells about bottom up approach.If you have read the recent projects,schemes,environment initiatives,all have bottom up approach,it’s always considered advantageous,so if such a statement is there it has to be true,no scheme,initiative will mention that local communities shall not be involved,so third statement is also true.

So we get the answer as 1 and 3 .

We prepared this intellectual guess article by seeking inputs from aspirants who scored very high in prelims that year.

Questions from previous UPSC PRELIMS

10th question-Prelims 2015

 Q-Which of the following has/have been accorded ‘Geographical Indication’ status?

1. Banaras Brocades and Sarees

2. Rajasthani Daal-Bati-Churma

3. Tirupathi Laddu

Select the correct answer using the code given below:

(a) 1 only

(b) 2 and 3 only

(c) 1 only 3 only

(d) 1, 2 and 3

Solution: c)

Explanation-

If one has ever seen the geographical indication list,one might be knowing that GI tags are associated with particular towns,cities or a small locality and not a whole state.This easily eliminates Rajasthani daal baati churma and leads us to guess the correct answer as C.

11th Question- 2015 Prelims

Q-Which of the following statements regarding ‘Green Climate Fund’ is/are correct?

1. It is intended to assist the developing countries in adaptation and mitigation practices to counter climate change.

2. It is founded under the aegis of UNEP, OECD, Asian Development Bank and World Bank

Select the correct answer using the code given below.

a) 1 only

b) 2 only

c) Both 1 and 2

d) Neither 1 nor 2

Solution: a)

Explanation-

First Statement-  It’s a general statement which cannot be contradicted.Developing countries are the ones who require funds to counter climate change and not developed countries.

Second Statement-If you have ever gone through list of climate related funds,you will notice that never two banks manage a single fund,only one bank is required to manage a fund.On that basis one can easily negate the second statement .So one gets the correct answer as 1 only as correct.

12th Question- 2015 Prelims

Q- In a particular region in India, the local people train the roots of living tree into robust bridges across the streams. As the time passes these bridges become stronger. These unique ‘Living Root Bridges’ are found in

a) Meghalaya

b) Himachal Pradesh

c) Jharkhand

d) Tamil Nadu

Answer- A

Explanation-

Its an easy guess,generally such structures are built by tribal communities and possible only where the vegetation consists of trees with large and branched roots like that of ficus species.Moreover such bridges are required where there are many small perennial streams of water(focus on the word “streams “ in the question),so the region must have good rainfall and mainhy small streams.Such bridges cannot be constructed on large rivers.By all accounts the answer should be Meghalaya.This question was picked from NCET 11th Arts and Crafts book.

We have mentioned the importance of NCERT Arts and Crafts Book in one article and also providing summary of 11th and 12th class books to paid subscribers as many questions have come in previous years such as living root bridges and Kalamkari panintings.

13th Question-2015 Prelims

Q-The substitution of steel for wooden ploughs in agricultural production is an example of

a) labour-augmenting technological progress

b) capital-augmenting technological progress

c) capital-reducing technological progress

d) None of the above

Answer – B

Explanation-

Steel is more expensive than wood for making ploughs,so one needs to invest money into it.Use of steel will reduce labour as efficiency of plough will increase.So it cannot be labour augmenting as its labour reducing,it cannot be capital reducing as more money is required ,so the correct answer will be capital augmenting technological process.Quite simple.

14th Question-2015 prelims

Q-Consider the following pairs :

Place of Pilgrimage: Location

1. Srisailam : Nallamala Hills

2. Omkareshwar : Satmala Hills

3. Pushkar : Mahadeo Hills

Which of the above pairs is/are correctly matched?

a) 1 only

b) 2 and 3 only

c) 1 and 3 only

d) 1, 2 and 3

Solution: A

Explanation-

Its an easy elimination method based question if one knows Pushkar is in Ajmer,Rajasthan and Mahadeo hills are in Madhya Pradesh and not in Rajasthan.And there is only one option which doesn’t mention statement 3 as correct.So by eliminating all options which include 3 in answer,we get A as the correct solution.

15th Question- 2015 Prelims

Q-The term ‘IndARC’ sometimes seen in the news, is the name of?

a) an indigenously developed radar system inducted into Indian Defence

b) India’s satellite to provide services to the countries of Indian Ocean Rim

c) a scientific establishment set up by India in Antarctic region

d) India’s underwater observatory to scientifically study the Arctic region

Solution- D

Explanation-

The name has the answer- IndARC- India+ Arctic.

And the list goes on…We showed you how intellectual guess work is done through the above questions.While our research  on intellectual guess,we noticed a pattern on the basis of which we can tell with utmost surety wether a given statement is correct or not in many questions  (for example,if there is mention of “indigenous people” in any statement in environment related question then it has to be correct most of the times).

 

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Written by IASNOVA

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) & INDIA

CORALS & SEA GRASS- Probable topic for Prelims